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National Economy
Our national economic research focuses on monetary policy and other issues of importance to the Federal Reserve. Results are shared with other researchers, policymakers and the public.
National Information
- FOMC Press Releases
- Federal Funds Target
- Gross Domestic Product
- The Beige Book
- Prices & Inflation
- Labor Markets
- Daily Interest Rates
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FREDII)
- Fed in Print
A searchable index of Federal Reserve economic research.
Recent Research
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Model Uncertainty, State Uncertainty, and State-space Models
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric R. Young
A classic macroeconomic framework with model uncertainty and state uncertainty can have a state-space representation and thus be used to address a range of interesting questions in macroeconomics and international economics. -
Interpreting the Recent Decline in Labor Force Participation
By Willem Van Zandweghe
Long-term trend factors, such as demographic shifts, share about equally with the recession of 2007-09 in accounting for the sharp recent decline in labor force participation. -
Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing
By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie and Eric R. Young
What are the implications of model uncertainty for the tax-smoothing hypothesis? -
A Bayesian Evaluation of Alternative Models of Trend Inflation
By Todd E. Clark and Taeyoung Doh
Averaging forecasts from alternative models of trend inflation can provide more reliable medium-term inflation forecasts than using a single best-fitting model of trend inflation.
Kansas City Financial Stress Index
This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.
The KCFSI suggests financial stress ticked up in April, but remained below its long run average.
Current Survey-
Economic Review
The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.
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Research Working Papers
The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.
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Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings
The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.
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Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010
Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.