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• Fed in Print

  A searchable index of Federal Reserve economic research.

  
  
  

Recent Research

• Is Unemployment Helpful in Understanding Inflation?

  By Taeyoung Doh
  Does the simultaneous decline of core inflation with the increase in the unemployment rate during the recent recession indicate that the use of economic slack, such as unemployment, is helpful in explaining inflation?

• Have Rising Oil Prices Become a Greater Threat to Price Stability?

  By Martin Fukač
  The effect of oil prices on inflation was strong in the 1970s and early 1980s. In the late 1980s and early 1990s, however, the inflationary effect moderated. Recent evidence indicates that trend may have reversed.

• Model Uncertainty and Intertemporal Tax Smoothing

  By Yulei Luo, Jun Nie, and Eric R. Young
  What are the implications of model uncertainty for the tax-smoothing hypothesis?

• A Bayesian Evaluation of Alternative Models of Trend Inflation

  By Todd E. Clark and Taeyoung Doh
  Averaging forecasts from alternative models of trend inflation can provide more reliable medium-term inflation forecasts than using a single best-fitting model of trend inflation.

• A Chronology of Turning Points in Economic Activity: Spain 1850-2011

  By Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
  A novel historical chronology of business cycle turning points for the Spanish economy for the years 1850-2011 is produced to inform the study of macroeconomic fluctuations and policy responses for that economy.

• A Chronology of International Business Cycles Through Non-parametric Decoding

  By Hsieh Fushing, Shu-Chun Chen, Travis J. Berge and Òscar Jordà
  A novel method for recognizing different phases of the business cycle is developed and used to create novel business cycle chronologies for 22 major economies.

Kansas City Financial Stress Index

This index is a monthly measure of stress in the U.S. financial system based on 11 market variables.

The KCFSI suggests financial stress continued to edge down in January but remained slightly above its long-run average.

• Economic Review

  The Economic Review is a quarterly research publication with articles by Kansas City Fed staff on issues of relevance to the Federal Reserve, including macroeconomics and monetary policy, regional and international economics, banking, financial markets and payments systems.

• Research Working Papers

  The Kansas City Fed's research staff members produce working papers covering a wide range of economic topics, including monetary policy, banking and more.

• Economic Symposium Conference Proceedings

  The proceedings include papers, commentary and discussion from the Kansas City Fed's annual symposium. Participants include central bankers, finance ministers, academics and financial market participants from around the globe. They discuss economic issues, implications and policy options.

• Central Bank Forecasting Presentations - October 2010

  Invited applied and theoretical papers on all aspects of central bank forecasting.